There is evidence emerging in China that a new H7N9 strain of the bird flu virus is threatening the human population. There are already 18 deaths and over 100 known cases. The problem of course is establishing whether the patients and victims contracted the virus from poultry, or from human-to-human transmission. At this point, 50% of the patients say that they had contact with poultry in markets or the workplace. It seems probably that there is a strong link to poultry, but its probably not airborne contact. Its early days. The World Health Organisation has sent officials to China in order to appraise the problem.
This might be a confidence-breaker? It would take about 6 months to find a vaccine (only urgent if its sufficiently contagious); then up to 6 months to produce enough vaccine if it spreads globally. Only need enough for people in quarantine if its contained, otherwise everyone boards a plane needs it; and of course anyone who shows symptoms. That depends on how well its contained in rural areas to prevent it spreading to cities, and ultimately overseas. Perhaps people commuting or going abroad ought to be wearing face masks...though its uncertain how effective masks are. It seems probable that they will decrease your chances of infection.
The virus is at this point apparently threatening people with immune deficiencies This of course diminishes the virility of the strain. Should the virility of a new mutation emerge with greater communicability, then ultimately the threat posed could be more serious. This is of course why authorities will be looking to prevent the spread of the virus in humans by killing infected poultry in close contact with humans. Of course that control measure becomes more difficult once all livestock are infected. At that point, the emphasis shifts from control to immunisation.
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